UFC Vegas 39 Betting Preview – Maria Agapova vs Sabina Mazo

by Spooky Express | October 7, 2021 |

La Colombiana representa!

Sabino Mazo is a native of one of my favorite countries on the planet, Colombia. The people there are some of the most respectful and kind that you will ever meet in your entire life and that is if you traveled half the time, too.

Don’t be scared of anything you may have heard from your parents, the news, and especially not Netflix. And even if you get robbed, they aren’t going to pop you if you give them your stuff. Just consider it a tax.

As much as I would like to get behind Sabina Mazo here, I think I am going to have to lean towards the dog here. There is just too much of a skill and physicality gap between the two not to mention a gap in aggression but if history repeats itself, the latter can backfire on Maria Agapova.

She is now infamous in the MMA betting world for completely gassing out and losing her last fight. What made this so monumental was that she closed as a 10-1 favorite over Shana Dobson!

Maria looked like she had the early finish locked up and was somehow proving her ridiculous betting odds to be correct…until she wasn’t. She hit a wall faster than Conor McGregor on a Saturday night.

There is quite a bit to this story and I will try to give you guys the cliff notes as well as a prediction on this fight as I am fairly confident in it. That is if Miss Agapova has done some growing up.

Let’s look at the betting odds and make a play from there!

Sabina Mazo (-170) vs Maria Agapova (+150)

I will be straight up with y'all. Before I read about Maria's recent drug and behavior problems, I thought this line should have been flipped and then some. I know she has the loss to Shana Dobson and while I don't think there were many people out there betting against Maria that night, I know the sportsbooks were going to be hard-pressed to make her a favorite in her next bout.

I mean, I get it. They had her 10-1 so there is going to be some rebound from that but not this much. Sabina Mazo is a good fighter. She comes from a Muay Thai background and she is likely going to get the fight she wants against the Kazakh rising star.

Sabina is a volume striker who can be bullied in there and Maria loves nothing more than to overwhelm a lesser puncher with a slight frame that she knows isn’t likely to even try to take her down.

Agapova has been kicked out of several high-profile gyms in the past year or so and has partied like a maniac even showing up to training high and endangering her partners. I am not talking about weed either.

In Conclusion

Maria is a wild woman but if you're giving me dog odds on the fighter with more power, physicality, aggression, youth, and skill, I have to take it. Maybe she proves that she is, in fact, a flake with another performance reminiscent of her first fight but I think Maria has grown up just enough and laid off the sauce just long enough to get the win this weekend in Vegas.

Pick: Maria Agapova +150

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